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HomeValue InvestingVolkswagen (VWAGY) Inventory Evaluation

Volkswagen (VWAGY) Inventory Evaluation


Fast Inventory Overview

Ticker: VWAGY

Supply: Yahoo Finance

Key Information

Trade Automible
Market Capitalization ($M) $102,751
Worth to gross sales 0.4
Worth to Free Money Stream 4.7
Dividend yield 4.1%
Gross sales ($M) 263,651
Free money movement/share $3.6
Fairness per share $28.03
P/E 5.2

1. Govt Abstract

Volkswagen is the world’s second-largest automobile firm by income, behind solely Toyota. The Volkswagen Group consists of ten European manufacturers from 5 international locations: Volkswagen, Volkswagen Industrial Automobiles, Porsche, Lamborghini, Audi, Bentley, Ducati, CUPRA, SKODA, and SEAT.

Volkswagen is the kind of firm markets have hated for many years. Capital intensive, “outdated business”, polluting, primarily based outdoors the US. Making automobiles has positively not been glamourous recently until you make electrical automobiles (EVs). The dominant narrative has been that legacy automakers are doomed to go the way in which of the dodo birds, changed by Tesla and its numerous copycats.

You’ll be able to see a video of the meteoritic rise of Tesla’s market cap within the tweet right here. In 2021, it was as giant as that of the subsequent 10 largest automakers TOGETHER.

I feel that is about to vary, for the straightforward cause that the main automakers are catching up and difficult Tesla’s domination of the EV (Electrical automobiles) market. Volkswagen is on the forefront of this shift and is ideally positioned to carry inexpensive EVs to the market.

The group has the economic capability, monetary sources, know-how, and branding energy to handle efficiently the transition to electrical mobility.

The change to electrical may also present VW with the right event to modernize its company and monetary construction. Lots has been executed on this course already, as you will notice on this report. VW has additionally invested closely in turning the economic large right into a tech firm, from software program to self-driving automobiles.

Lastly, the VW group may additionally profit from the deliberate Porsche IPO and has different prestigious manufacturers that they might spin off sooner or later.

None of those developments appear priced in at this level. Tesla skeptics have been overwhelmed down by years of failed shorts technique, so nobody appears to note that the world’s second-largest automobile producer goes all-in on electrical automobiles.

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2. Prolonged Abstract: Why Volkswagen?

The Electrification Problem

The transition to electrical automobiles is the most important problem the automobile business has confronted in many years. Tesla has been constantly main the pack, making a shifting goalpost for legacy producers. VW is uniquely positioned to catch up and reveals early indicators of doing so. Opponents are centered on different applied sciences or ultra-low worth ranges.

Re-Studying Innovation

VW has constructed a brand new ground-up improvement course of for constructing EVs, which it’s sharing throughout the Firm’s totally different manufacturers. This dramatically will increase the synergy between the group manufacturers, lowering waste on redundant R&D. VW can also be embracing the way forward for automobiles as linked gadgets, with huge progress on software program, devoted electronics {hardware}, and investments in self-driving know-how.

Porsche IPO, Dangers & Valuation

VW plans to promote 25% of its Porsche possession this fall. Half of the proceeds can be used to finance electrification, half distributed as a particular dividend. The VW group’s manufacturers are more likely to command a premium when buying and selling individually.

VW dangers are largely associated to precise and potential provide chain issues. A recession would clearly harm as effectively, however valuation and earnings appear according to the 10-year common and don’t mirror the highs of a cycle.


3. The Electrification Problem

One Battery To Rule Them All

In case you are following monetary markets, I doubt you may have missed the hordes of devoted Tesla traders. Tesla’s worth has just lately reached a degree the place it was value greater than the whole conventional automobile business.

The image may be very totally different once we have a look at the variety of automobiles offered. With the business churning out a complete of round 70 million items/yr in 2021, the 1 million manufacturing capability just lately reached by Tesla appears quite a bit much less spectacular.

In fact, Tesla’s market cap relies on the idea that conventional automakers won’t ever meet up with the EV market chief. So let’s have a look at the newest EV gross sales numbers. The picture beneath from September 2021 would point out that Tesla certainly nonetheless fully dominates the business.

I highlighted VW electrical automobiles. You’ll be able to see that moreover an ultra-low-cost “soapbox” automobile from China, VW was the second-best behind Tesla, however nonetheless far behind.

However that is outdated information. The ID.4 is shortly rising as a critical competitor, with gross sales up 65% in Q1 2022. At 30,300 items offered, the ID.4 is now above each different mannequin however Tesla fashions 3 and Y. You’ll be able to see a evaluation of the ID.4 on this article.

The ID.4 begins at $40,760 within the US, considerably cheaper than Tesla’s least expensive entry, the Mannequin 3, which begins at $48,440.

Extra importantly, the ID.4 was lower than a 3rd of the VW group sale of EVs. The VW group offered near 100,000 EVs in Q1 2022, unfold out between Audi e-Tron, Porsche Taycan, and so forth. Every of these is of equal high quality to Tesla’s luxurious fashions. It in all probability might have executed even higher, however “VW provide of EV for the US market ran out“.

Altogether, The VW group EV gross sales in Q1 2022 are roughly 1/3 of Tesla’s gross sales. If market caps adopted EV gross sales quantity, VW must be valued at $276B, in comparison with the present $118B.

VW additionally delivered 1,800,000 conventional automobiles in Q1 2022, or x18 of its EV quantity. I’d not base a VW valuation on Tesla, clearly an overvalued firm, however nonetheless, it put issues in perspective.

Is Tesla the Apple of Automakers?

If it is advisable keep in mind just one factor from this report, keep in mind this part. When finding out Tesla, the perfect parallel could be Apple. Fanatical supporters, excessive costs, top-level tech, and modern or shocking design. And that’s alright. I feel that is the right area of interest for Tesla, and judging by Apple’s historical past, it could possibly be a really worthwhile one.

If the smartphone market is an effective indication of the way forward for EVs, this implies a counterpart to the Apple technique. You may as effectively establish and purchase the longer term Samsung, which barely outsells Apple in complete unit quantity.

Apple / Tesla Samsung / Volkswagen
Product numbers Few, pushed by new interplay Very giant, cowl any use case
Know-how stage/Efficiency At all times on the high From low cost to ok to excessive tech
Pricing Increased vary From low cost to high-end
Branding energy Maximal Well-known however not excellent
Company nature Founder-led, centered on innovation Faceless, giant outdated company, with a number of manufacturers or actions
Aggressive benefits Low advertising value
Model energy
Excessive margins
Giant industrial capability & expertise
Loads of money movement
Price-efficient R&D and manufacturing

The Apple/Tesla technique is a robust one. It’s also a limiting one. By tying a lot of the product and model to luxurious and id, it locks itself out of components of the market. A low-cost iPhone wouldn’t be a “actual” iPhone. It appears the street to a $25k Tesla is equally gradual. The “cooler” cybertruck goes to reach earlier than the “boring” semi-truck (a venture lingering in Tesla limbo since 2019) or “simply low cost” fashions.

Volkswagen (whose title means “the individuals’s automobile”) doesn’t have such an issue. It could commercialize cheaper and mid-range fashions underneath the VW, Seat, and Skoda manufacturers. It sells sports activities automobiles underneath Porsche and luxurious fashions underneath Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, and Cupra. If it needs to, it even can enter the marketplace for electrical bikes with Ducati. It additionally offers electrical variations of its Scania vehicles, MAN buses, and VW industrial vans.

For an ideal illustration of how VW is creating informal automobiles that fill niches unfit for the Tesla model, we are able to have a look at the reimagined iconic VW van ID Buzz.

So if Tesla is the Apple of EVs, Volkswagen has the potential to develop into the Samsung of EVs.

It would doubtless be the grasp of the mid-price vary part for EVs, whereas additionally taking a sizeable chunk of all the opposite sectors, from low-cost to luxurious and sport. This must be helped by the arrival of a number of new merchandise, notably the ID.5, ID Buzz, and Lengthy-range Aero, but in addition the cheaper ID life.

The Different Opponents

The automotive business is a slightly fragmented one, and I anticipate it to remain this manner. For instance, I anticipate not less than one of many Huge 3 (GM, Ford, Chrysler) to remain essential within the US market and be joined by Tesla on high of that market.

Judging by this listing of the most affordable EVs, with Mazda, Kia, Nissan, and Hyundai, the low vary section is more likely to be managed by Japanese companies. This leaves VW nearly alone within the worthwhile mid-range section.

I additionally anticipate the Chinese language and Southeast Asian producers to take over the area of interest of the ultra-cheap market, beneath $15k-$20k EVs. In that section, we may also discover Renault-Dacia with the Duster Spring. Their small batteries will confine them to city and suburban utilization.

The one competitor that might or ought to have been a critical risk to VW was Toyota. It had the important mass, popularity, and sources to duplicate VW and even beat it. As a substitute of competing head entrance on battery EVs, although, Toyota appears to imagine in a give attention to hybrids and even hydrogen. Relying on the pace of the electrical transition, this would possibly show a uniquely insightful technique or a horrible blunder.

That is however the most important risk to VW sooner or later, in all probability far more than Tesla. I encourage any investor in VW to pay shut consideration from 2025 onward to Toyota’s progress on solid-state batteries.

You’ll discover I didn’t point out different pure EV startups. It’s because after Nikola’s outright fraud, the closest contender, Ford-backed Rivian, is in freefall after failing to ramp up manufacturing. Merely put, making automobiles is a troublesome enterprise, and there’s a cause why there have been only a few new entrants within the markets within the final many years.


4. Re-Studying Innovation

Re-Mastering the Artwork of Automaking

By its personal admission, VW was too gradual to react to the pattern of electrification. It’s now working time beyond regulation to right that mistake. Partially, its consideration was distracted by combating a rearguard battle towards air pollution management on diesel automobiles. This led VW to falsify air pollution reviews in a scandal now often known as the Dieselgate.

The scandal resulted in expensive fines and several other executives had been arrested or fired. It additionally pushed VW to embrace the EV revolution. The corporate was punished with $2.7B in damages however was additionally pressured to speculate $2B in clear emission infrastructures. You’ll be able to learn extra in regards to the flip to electrical automobiles from the corporate’s CEO on this interview.

VW is an professional at making nice ICE (Inner Combustion Engine) automobiles. So it wanted a number of years to learn to switch this experience into electrical engines. The abilities had been already there for nice steering, gearboxes, brakes, suspensions, and all the opposite elements that go into a contemporary automobile.

Till now, VW has basically been a conglomerate of manufacturers. Every of the manufacturers had its personal designs, with restricted overlap. This led to a really complicated provide chain with, for instance, tons of of various gearboxes. The change to electrical has develop into a chance to revamp ALL the VW group’s new automobiles round widespread core {hardware} and software program by means of the shared Scalable System Platform.

That is now dealt with by the newly shaped Volkswagen part Group division. Administration appears assured that they will strike the superb stability between preserving manufacturers uniqueness and customary designs:

There are numerous similarities which we are able to leverage in scale — much more so on the software program facet. If you happen to drove an Audi or Porsche and Volkswagen in the present day, you’d in all probability have totally different {hardware} and software program for navigation, for local weather management, and even for the window lifter. That’s not obligatory. … Software program presents an enormous alternative for economies of scale, nonetheless permitting for model differentiation.

Now, a Porsche can stay a Porsche, even higher than in the present day. An Audi can stay an Audi, and Volkswagen will provide a broad vary of merchandise, however the primary software program stack will be very, very comparable. Software program is comparatively costly in automotive. Now it’s a one-time expenditure. … We expect that we have now probability to additionally develop into very aggressive in software program if we construct a standard primary software program for all of the manufacturers. 

Embracing the Digital Revolution

Dieselgate was the shock VW wanted to show towards the longer term. Its innovation is targeted on 3 areas: Batteries, Software program, and Autonomous Driving

Batteries

VW is growing a hybrid answer between full reliance on giant third events (CATL, Panasonic) and Tesla-style vertical integration. Its 2 most important companions are smaller battery producer NorthVolt and QuantumScape, a solid-state battery startup. It was contemplating an IPO for its battery division in 2021 however that appears to be on the again burner for now, with the Firm focusing as a substitute on the Porsche IPO (extra on that later).

VW can also be investing closely in startups with useful know-how. For instance, a $400M funding in Group14, changing the normal graphite anode in lithium-ion batteries with a silicon-carbon materials, is boosting battery capability by 50%.

VW’s low-carbon profile can also be helped by funding in new amenities, notably $10B in solar-powered factories in Spain for electrical automobiles and batteries.

The top purpose for VW is to maintain the excessive acceleration efficiency of EVs whereas additionally having very lengthy vary and quick charging. All of those will in all probability be absolutely achievable solely when solid-state batteries are absolutely applied.

Software program and IT {hardware}

The CARIAD division is in control of growing a group-wide software program stack, for use by all VW manufacturers by 2025-2030. This can make all VW automobiles linked gadgets, following the footsteps of the On-the-Air updates by Tesla. It additionally handles the design of devoted {hardware} permitting the elimination of as much as 1 kilometer of cable per automobile in comparison with earlier designs.

Autonomous Driving

VW is partnering with and investing in Argo AI to develop autonomous driving options. Autonomous driving is a contentious matter amongst tech fans. Some anticipate it yesterday, others see it at greatest 15 years sooner or later. Contemplating the fixed delays of Tesla Full Self Driving, it appears a troublesome nut to crack. You’ll be able to learn extra about Argo AI strategies in this interview with its CEO.

The experience pooling answer MOIA and its devoted 6-seater are deliberate to enhance the autonomous driving options.

VW’s strategy is a cautious one, specializing in restricted autonomy in an outlined space, and increasing slowly from there. The cultural distinction between US startup tradition (the hare Tesla) and German industrialist (the tortoise VW) might be at play right here.

Our intention is to have the ability to drive a automobile as Volkswagen. We’ve got two areas: one is pushing robotaxi know-how with Argo. This includes shuttle providers, restricted areas, comparatively gradual speeds — they’re sometimes ODD, which is realized and programmed. Then it goes space by space and metropolis by metropolis. The opposite means we’re pushing is non-public mobility: we have now the Audi workforce and CARIAD workforce engaged on that as a result of we predict that autonomous driving is not going to solely cowl this space of robotaxis, but in addition non-public automobiles. Step-by-step: first we sort out driving at stage three or stage 4 on open highways — German autobahns — after which we get into extra complicated areas.

The Verge


5. Porsche IPO, Dangers & Valuation

Porsche AG IPO

A facet discover: I’m talking of Porsche AG, the corporate manufacturing and promoting the Porsche automobiles. Don’t confuse this with one other firm, Porsche SE. Porsche SE is the holding of the Porsche household, which owns a big a part of VW, which in flip owns Porsche AG, the automobile firm. Fairly complicated I do know. Welcome to German company constructions.

VW acquired Porsche AG in 2012 and is planning the sale of 25% of the Firm this fall. Porsche AG has just lately proven a fantastic gross revenue margin of 18.6%. The meant pricing of the IPO just isn’t but clear. For instance, Mercedes, BMW, and VW commerce at 5-6x earnings; Ferrari at 40x earnings. So the a number of on Porsche earnings can be a significant component. The concept behind the IPO is to let Porsche AG commerce at luxurious/supercar multiples, as a substitute of “boring” giant automaker multiples.

At a center floor P/E between Ferrari and German automaker, this is able to give Porsche AG a valuation of $84B. Even at half of that, a $42B could be a big a part of VW’s $102B present valuation. Loads of debate exists about VW’s means to carry its present “conglomerate low cost”. The second a part of this text offers extra info on this challenge and can enable you kind your individual opinion.

Half of the proceedings of the IPO can be distributed to VW shareholders, and the remaining utilized to advancing VW’s electrification plans.

Different Manufacturers?

No plans have been introduced for the same IPO for the opposite luxurious model within the VW portfolio. However, if the Porsche IPO is a hit, I might simply see Lamborghini, Audi, Bentley and even Ducati obtain the identical “25% offered in an IPO” remedy. This is able to assist worth discovery for these manufacturers/corporations, whereas nonetheless sustaining VW’s complete management over the manufacturers.

This isn’t as far-fetched as you may assume. Final yr, VW acquired a $7.5B provide for Lamborghini for instance. VW refused the provide.

Dangers

VW’s plans for electrification are the principle attraction to the inventory. Whichever of the highest 5 legacy automakers will handle the electrical transition will reap excellent rewards. However, the business is dealing with fairly a number of headwinds:

Recession Threat

After one of many longest bull markets in historical past, rising charges, inflation, and battle in Europe have all contributed to an elevated danger of a world recession. The automotive business is notoriously cyclical. All of the current excessive earnings of VW and its rivals must be taken with a pinch of salt. We is likely to be on the highs of the financial cycle, and gross sales within the subsequent few years would possibly end up decrease than hoped.

Power Prices

VW is a German firm, and exploding vitality prices in Europe are an actual concern. The corporate is producing outdoors of Europe as effectively, however this could nonetheless harm its dwelling market disproportionately. If Russian fuel stops flowing fully due to the Ukraine battle or sanctions, this is able to doubtless trigger exploding costs for energy-intensive supplies like metal and batteries.

Provide Chain Disruption

This one is much less a possible danger as an ongoing concern. It additionally applies to most VW rivals. Chip shortages have plagued automakers for two years now. The current wave of Chinese language lockdowns just isn’t going to assist enhance the availability chain both.

On high of that, an affordable however important part, a wiring harness, was largely equipped from Ukraine.

Provide chain points restrict manufacturing, and output ranges are more likely to be disappointing in 2022. I anticipate VW to deal with it higher than its smaller rivals, however this would possibly nonetheless harm gross sales quantity.

Lastly, some provide points would possibly emerge in the long term. The provision of lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel is likely to be too brief to cowl all of the batteries automakers are planning to construct. New mines would possibly take 10 years to get operational, so it is a critical danger. In that respect, VW would possibly make pair in a portfolio with the miner Rio Tinto (coated in a earlier report a number of months in the past). The rising prices of VW could be Rio Tinto’s earnings, lowering the general danger of the portfolio.

Valuation

An funding in VW is a guess that the corporate emerges on high of the electrification pattern, or not less than as a significant participant. As a consequence of Toyota’s give attention to hybrid and different fuels like hydrogen, I feel that is doubtless. The persistent delays in an inexpensive Tesla automobile, construct high quality points, and branding points, make Tesla at most an equal, however not the domineering pressure individuals assume it’s. I feel the current ID.5 gross sales quantity displays this alteration in client notion in terms of EVs.

With a P/E of 5.3 and a worth to free money movement of 4.3, it will be powerful to argue that VW is overvalued. My most important concern could be for this coming from abnormally excessive earnings or revenues in the previous few years.

Wanting on the previous 10 years of income, web revenue, and revenue margin, I don’t see something out of line. Solely drops in 2016 (DieselGate) and 2020 (Covid) break the pattern. VW is a really regular and secure firm. I’m additionally happy to see that web revenue is secure even with the large funding in electrification.

This isn’t an organization that may see a 10x rise in worth. However it offers a small dividend and is likely to be far more secure than different overvalued parts of the market. An organization with a significant give attention to software program, electrification, and self-driving can also be providing the low valuation of an growing old industrial large.

As we transfer to bear market territory, will market notion change from searching for dangerous hypergrowth to stability. You may argue that it’s already occurring. If it does, VW inventory can be there to capitalize on it. The Porsche AG IPO is one other attainable catalyst, with the particular dividends seemingly not priced in.

For my part, in case you’re contemplating including an organization like VW to a portfolio, the principle focus must be on offering much less volatility to the portfolio whereas retaining the potential for respectable returns. Dividends and secure web revenue ought to present that, given the low multiples. In need of a brutal worldwide recession, VW ought to present respectable returns, with an opportunity of a inventory worth surge pushed by optimistic EV gross sales and manufacturing figures or a profitable Porsche IPO.

The danger with these outdated industrial giants is the chance that they are going to be caught unaware of a know-how shift. You don’t wish to find yourself proudly owning the subsequent Kodak all the way in which to zero. Contemplating the efforts VW has put into modernizing its line and innovation, I’m assured they may profit from the EV pattern as a substitute of being harmed by it.


6. Conclusion

Volkswagen is the kind of funding that may in all probability by no means present the best returns in a portfolio. It’s a safer, extra mature kind of firm, lowering general volatility. I’d not essentially have seemed deeper if it was not promoting at a slightly low cost worth.

On high of the worth, I’m appreciative of the technique. The corporate didn’t rush into electrification, however when it determined to do the change, it did it proper. The product performances in mileage, high quality, and worth present a stage of engineering equal or superior to Telsa, the market chief. The one possibly lagging half, software program, is catching up at a wide ranging pace.

Creating the ID.4 and ID.5 was a large endeavor in design, battery know-how, electrical engine, and particular components like gearboxes. This EV experience acquired in mid-price automobiles can now be introduced shortly to all worth ranges, in addition to industrial automobiles, vehicles, buses, and even bikes.

I anticipate VW scaling up electrical automobiles will catch most observers without warning. The EV market received used to seeing the opening of a brand new Tesla Manufacturing facility on a brand new continent as massive information. With corporations of the dimensions of VW coming into the market aggressively, this can be a standard prevalence.

VW may also have the ability to draw from its virtually 2 million conventional automobiles per yr gross sales to finance the transition. Its “legacy” operations additionally give it entry to a really deep pool of proficient engineers, designers, researchers, designers, testers, and so forth, whose abilities can comparatively simply be repurposed for EV fashions. The identical outdated true for model power, PR contacts, and gross sales networks.

The flexibility to nonetheless earn money for ICE (Inner Combustion Engine) automobiles whereas turning to EVs appears particularly helpful for me. If the transition to EVs seems slower than anticipated, or uncooked minerals for batteries are too uncommon or costly, VW can merely gradual issues down just a little and maintain making a living promoting the automobiles that made the enterprise sturdy for many years.

Lastly, the wealthy panel of manufacturers within the VW group could possibly be a supply of hidden worth. Luxurious or sports activities model tends to commerce at a premium. After Porsche, VW might progressively take into account IPOs for Lamborghini, Bentley, Audi, and Ducati. I believe that the components are value greater than the market worth for the entire group collectively.

Utilizing the Porsche IPO as a template, VW preserving 75% possession would enable simply sufficient worth discovery, whereas preserving the model safely at dwelling. They are going to all profit from the Group R&D and customary base structure for the transition to EV. That is one thing impartial supercar corporations like Ferrari couldn’t afford with out changing into over-reliant on third-party suppliers.

Lastly, self-driving options include numerous choices. I believe that even when Argo AI seems to not be the perfect technical answer, its strategies will appease regulators higher than Teslas. Nobody needs 2-tons of steel driving round by itself with out sufficient information and suggestions to make sure it’s secure.

So I anticipate the adoption of self-driving automobiles can be gradual for regulatory causes irrespective of how good the tech is. It would solely be adopted on highways and well-known routes at first (like between airports for instance) and increase from there. A popularity for gradual and regular company strategies appears extra acceptable than the considerably reckless and brash fashion of an Elon Musk.


Holdings Disclosure

Neither I nor anybody else related to this web site has a place in VWAGY or plans to provoke any positions throughout the 72 hours of this publication.

I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my very own private views and opinions. I’m not receiving compensation from, nor do I’ve a enterprise relationship with any firm whose inventory is talked about on this article.

Authorized Disclaimer

Not one of the writers or contributors of FinMasters are registered funding advisors, brokers/sellers, securities brokers, or monetary planners. This text is being offered for informational and academic functions solely and on the situation that it’s going to not kind a major foundation for any funding determination.

The views about corporations and their securities expressed on this article mirror the private opinions of the person analyst. They don’t characterize the opinions of Vertigo Studio SA (publishers of FinMasters) on whether or not to purchase, promote or maintain shares of any explicit inventory.

Not one of the info in our articles is meant as funding recommendation, as a suggestion or solicitation of a suggestion to purchase or promote, or as a suggestion, endorsement, or sponsorship of any safety, firm, or fund. The data is common in nature and isn’t particular to you. 

Vertigo Studio SA just isn’t accountable and can’t be held answerable for any funding determination made by you. Earlier than utilizing any article’s info to make an funding determination, it is best to search the recommendation of a professional and registered securities skilled and undertake your individual due diligence.

We didn’t obtain compensation from any corporations whose inventory is talked about right here. No a part of the author’s compensation was, is, or can be immediately or not directly, associated to the precise suggestions or views expressed on this article.



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