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The Russia-Ukraine warfare, European Monetary Integration, and Crises


By Philipp Hartmann, Deputy Director Normal Analysis, ECB; and CEPR Analysis Fellow, Philippe Molitor, Principal Monetary Stability Professional, ECB, Annachiara Tanzarella, Scholar Analysis Assistant, Directorate Normal Analysis, ECB, and Bruun de Jong, Scholar Analysis Assistant, Directorate Normal Analysis, ECB. Initially printed at VoxEU.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added one other one to a sequence of crises affecting Europe during the last decade and a half. This column finds that fragmentation of euro space monetary markets has been comparatively restricted, as policymakers have benefitted from reforms after and experiences with previous crises, European international locations and authorities reacted with fairly some unity, and direct monetary exposures to Russia and Ukraine are comparatively small. Cross-country divergences of euro space asset costs seem to have been notably pushed by bond markets and associated to the international locations with the best vitality and monetary exposures in addition to to modifications in financial uncertainty.

The European Financial and Financial Union (EMU) has weathered a number of extreme crises, notably over the last one and a half a long time. The crises normally went hand in hand with reductions of economic integration, also known as monetary fragmentation (see Adam et al. 2002, Baele et al. 2004, ECB 2007 and follow-up stories, European Parliament 2016, FSB 2019, and Claessens 2019 for broad discussions of economic integration/fragmentation and related literature). This may be seen in Determine 1, which exhibits two mixture indicators of economic integration – one based mostly on cross-border value differentials in key monetary markets (price-based composite indicator, the blue line) and one other based mostly on cross-border asset holdings (quantity-based composite indicator, the yellow line). For instance, the Nice Monetary Disaster and the European sovereign debt crises collectively introduced measured monetary integration all the way down to ranges just like the occasions of the euro’s introduction. The explanations for these centrifugal forces are multifaceted, however two notably necessary and interrelated ones are that EMU has been constructed bottom-up from single sovereign international locations the place the unification of financial coverage was not accompanied by a commensurate fiscal union. As member international locations have differing fiscal and financial strengths, they don’t have the identical skill to stabilise throughout crises.

Determine 1 Low-frequency price-based and quantity-based composite indicators of euro space monetary integration

(quarterly information, price-based indicator: Q1 1995 – Q1 2022, quantity-based indicator: Q1 1999 – Q1 2022)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: The worth-based composite indicator aggregates ten indicators for cash, bond, fairness and retail banking markets, measuring cross-border asset value or yield convergence, whereas the quantity-based composite indicator aggregates 5 indicators for a similar market segments (besides retail banking), measuring cross-border asset holdings. The quarterly values of the price-based composite indicator are computed as the common of the month-to-month values of the respective quarter whereas the values of the quantity-based composite indicator discuss with the tip of the respective quarter. The symptoms are bounded between zero (full fragmentation) and one (full integration). Will increase within the indicators sign larger monetary integration, i.e. larger cross-border asset value or yield convergence and larger cross-border asset funding throughout the euro space, respectively. From January 2018 onwards the behaviour of the price-based indicator might have modified because of the transition from EONIA to €STR rates of interest within the cash market part. Detailed descriptions of each indicators and their enter information are within the Statistical Internet Annex of ECB (2022) and Hoffmann et al. (2019). OMT stands for Outright Financial Transactions.

As a consequence of every disaster, new institutional preparations and coverage instruments have been launched within the fiscal, financial, prudential, and structural coverage areas (see Hartmann and Smets 2018, Rancoita et al. 2020, Tordoir et al. 2020, Afman et al. 2021, Buti 2021, Freier et al. 2022, ECB 2022b, 2022c, in addition to ESRB 2022 for broad overviews). They implied steps in the direction of the completion of EMU and monetary integration recovered, although extra in costs than in portions (see the right-hand facet of Determine 1). When the COVID-19 disaster hit (penultimate purple vertical line to the precise), a pointy re-fragmentation set in once more. Nevertheless it turned out to be much less extreme and extra short-lived than the earlier episodes, notably as highly effective improvements in coverage have been made once more (e.g. Hartmann et al. 2021, ECB 2022a).

A ‘Medical’ Evaluation Of Euro Space Monetary Integration Throughout The Early Part Of The Ukraine Conflict

From the intense proper of Determine 1, the impression of the Ukraine disaster on euro space monetary integration seems to be comparatively contained as properly (with quarterly information). Determine 2 offers an in depth image of euro space monetary integration developments with each day information (blue line) and related occasions (vertical strains with capital letters) in the course of the first three months of the warfare. (This high-frequency indicator is simply out there for value information.)

Determine 2 Excessive-frequency price-based composite indicator of euro space monetary integration and related occasions in the course of the Ukraine disaster

(each day information, 10 January 2022 – 23 Might 2022)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: The high-frequency price-based composite indicator of economic integration is a variant of the low-frequency price-based indicator developed by Hoffmann et al. (2019), as proven in Determine 1, at each day frequency moderately than month-to-month or quarterly frequency. Whereas protecting the identical market segments its deal with high-frequency information implies that it may incorporate solely a decrease variety of indicators total. Its development is described in Kochanska, Mulder and Zito (2020). Black vertical strains with capital letters mark chosen related occasions:
A. U.S. and Russia accuse one another at U.N. Safety Council assembly of stoking Ukraine disaster (31 January 2022); B. Russia and Belarus begin massive army drills near the Ukrainian border (10 February 2022); C. Russian army pronounces pulling again some troops near Ukraine (15 February 2022), D. Combating escalates in separatist areas of jap Ukraine (17 February 2022); E. U.S. President Biden and Secretary of State warn that Russia could also be on the brink of invading Ukraine (17 February 2022); F. Russian invasion of Ukraine and settlement of EU leaders on a second sanctions bundle in opposition to Russia (24 February 2022); G. European international locations (third bundle) and U.S. agree on additional sanctions, together with exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT and blocking the Russian central financial institution from entry to its international reserves (26 February 2022); H. European Union mentioned to think about joint bond gross sales to finance larger vitality and defence spending rising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in addition to US and UK ban on Russian oil imports (8 March 2022); I. ECB accelerates discount in web asset purchases in opposition to the background of continued excessive inflation and Ukraine not any longer urgent for NATO membership in addition to signalling openness to neutrality with safety ensures (10 March 2022); J. Russia and Ukraine trace at progress in peace negotiations (16 March 2022); Okay. EU leaders announce that they may collectively purchase gasoline, liquefied pure gasoline and hydrogen this yr (21 March 2022); L. President Putin’s decree demanding international consumers to pay for Russian gasoline in roubles or have their provides minimize (1 April 2022); M. Euro space financial sentiment reaches an sudden one-year low, German Finance Minister opens as much as an oil embargo in opposition to Russia and euro space sovereign yields/spreads edge up within the run-up of US Fed and Financial institution of England financial coverage conferences (2 Might 2022); N. Following a Financial institution of England price improve and announcement to begin (as the primary main central financial institution) actively promoting company bonds in September, following a number of ECB Governing Council Members’ feedback on the ECB’s future path of charges and following sizeable falls in German industrial manufacturing and manufacturing facility orders, the Italian sovereign unfold and company credit score danger in Europe attain two-year highs (5 Might 2022).

First, the time at which integration started to be affected could possibly be dated to end-January 2022, when a stand-off between Russia and the US occurred within the United Nations safety council as as to if Russia deliberate to assault Ukraine (occasion A in Determine 2), or on the primary day of the invasion when EU leaders additionally agreed on a second bundle of sanctions in opposition to Russia (24 February 2022; occasion F). Second, proper after the invasion and the primary sanctions the price-based indicator alerts sharp fragmentation, though not notably massive in comparison with the earlier episodes proven in Determine 1. Third, after a sequence of stories a few comparatively united European response to the disaster and about indicators of a moderation of the battle (occasions H, I, J, and Okay in Determine 2), greater than half of the preliminary fragmentation reversed (see additionally De Guindos 2022). Fourth, this re-integration development stopped with President Putin’s decree requiring international consumers to pay for Russian gasoline in roubles (occasion L; see additionally Zagrandi et al. 2022). After that (till the tip of our information interval on 23 Might 2022), measured monetary integration throughout euro space international locations hovered under the pre-crisis degree however above the trough in the course of the days following the invasion.

It’s fascinating to see that occasions pointing to a worsening of the battle (public arguments of politicians, army escalations or sanctions/retaliation; e.g. occasions A, B, D, E, F, G, H, L and M) appear to drive the euro space integration indicator down, whereas moderation of the battle (peace talks, softening of negotiation positions or army de-escalation; e.g. occasions C, I and J) and unified European approaches to cope with the financial penalties (potential joint debt issuance or joint vitality purchases; occasions H and Okay) appear to drive it up once more.

Determine 3 Excessive-frequency comparability of price-based monetary fragmentation within the euro space earlier than and after the start of the Ukraine and COVID crises

(each day information, brown stable line: 13 January – 25 April 2022, brown dashed line: 20 December 2021 – 28 March 2022, blue line: 10 January – 21 April 2020)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: The high-frequency price-based composite indicator is described within the notes to Determine 2. On the horizontal axis 0 is the day of the start of the disaster, with unfavourable numbers indicating days earlier than and constructive numbers days after it. The start of the COVID disaster is dated 21 February 2020 (blue line). For the Ukraine disaster two different beginning dates are displayed, 31 January 2022 (dashed brown line) and 24 February 2022 (stable brown line).

Determine 3 compares the preliminary fragmentation at the start of the COVID disaster with the preliminary fragmentation at the start of the Ukraine disaster. No matter whether or not one dates the latter to the time of the escalation within the ‘disagreement’ or the time of the efficient invasion, its monetary integration implications for the euro space remained clearly extra contained than for the COVID disaster. In sum, whereas one must be cautious that the Nice Monetary Disaster, the European sovereign debt disaster, the COVID disaster, and now the Ukraine disaster are of very completely different nature and magnitude, our integration measures recommend that the reforms making steps in the direction of EMU completion and the adoption of recent coverage instruments by varied authorities have been growing resilience of euro space monetary integration over time.

An Exploratory Evaluation Of Additional Elements Accounting For Monetary Fragmentation Throughout The Ukraine Disaster

Cross-country asset value or yield differentials, as captured within the earlier three figures (varied blue and brown strains for the price-based indicators), will be defined by variations within the financial fundamentals that affect the valuation of property, variations in market expectations concerning the future improvement of fundamentals and related danger premiums or non-fundamental market dynamics/mispricing (e.g. from the dissemination of inaccurate info, herding behaviour, self-fulfilling expectations, market panics or illiquidity). The next figures illustrate a few of the elements that appear to have pushed the divergence of asset costs throughout euro space international locations in the course of the first three months of the Ukraine disaster. All relate to asset costs included in or affecting the price-based indicator of economic integration displayed in Figures 1, 2 and three.

One of many main elements how the Ukraine warfare influences different international locations is thru vitality imports (e.g. Verwey et al. 2022). Significantly European international locations import plenty of gasoline and oil from Russia, albeit to differing levels. When Russia restricted deliveries in response to sanctions, costs skyrocketed. This accelerated inflation, constrained progress, and triggered fiscal expenditures to comprise the impression on corporations and households in euro space international locations. International locations with larger vitality dependence on Russia have been affected greater than international locations who use different vitality sources.

Determine 4 illustrates whether or not differing vitality imports from Russia have been mirrored in euro space international locations’ sovereign spreads throughout the primary monetary fragmentation interval in the beginning of the warfare (23 February to 1 March 2022; recall the sharp decline in Determine 2 throughout this era). Two channels by means of which this could possibly be the case is thru larger public expenditures (as talked about above) and decrease tax revenues from decrease progress, each of which might improve fiscal deficits and thereby are inclined to decrease the creditworthiness of nations.

There appears to be one group of nations with low vitality publicity to Russia (blue dots in Determine 4) for which no clear relationship is seen. However for the most-exposed international locations (above a degree of 1% of complete non-euro space imports; purple dots), larger dependence tended to indicate a larger improve of their sovereign unfold in opposition to Germany (additionally illustrated by a dotted purple regression-fitted line for these international locations). Curiously, within the subsequent interval of re-integration (see the rise of the price-based integration indicator in Determine 2 from occasion H to occasion L) the connection flips signal, which means that the extremely uncovered international locations benefited from bigger unfold declines in comparison with the less-exposed international locations (not proven in Determine 4). (Comparable relationships maintain for sovereign yields moderately than spreads, the place Germany is within the blue group of nations.) Clearly, given the low variety of observations, all these correlations needs to be interpreted cautiously.

Determine 4 Euro space international locations’ vitality dependence from Russia and their sovereign spreads in the course of the preliminary fragmentation interval at the start of the Ukraine warfare

(vertical axis: change between 23 February and 1 March 2022 in foundation factors; horizontal axis: 2021)

Sources: Refinitiv, Eurostat and ECB calculations
Notes: Sovereign spreads are for 10-year authorities bond yields relative to Germany. International locations with vitality publicity to Russia under 1 per cent are marked in blue and international locations above 1 per cent in purple. Dotted strains are fitted with easy bivariate regressions together with an intercept. The black dotted line incorporates all 15 euro space international locations for which dependable information have been out there (blue and purple dots). The purple dotted line solely incorporates the international locations with the most important vitality exposures to Russia. Nation abbreviations are as follows: AT=Austria; BE=Belgium; CY=Cyprus; ES=Spain; GR=Greece; FI=Finland; FR=France; IE=Eire; IT=Italy; LT=Lithuania; MT=Malta; NL=Netherlands; PT=Portugal; SI=Slovenia; SK=Slovakia.

One would count on that additionally euro space firms or company sectors could be affected in differential methods, relying on their relative reliance on oil and gasoline. Completely different industrial buildings – with some international locations having a larger share of energy-dependent sectors than others – might then indicate the divergence of fairness or company bond markets throughout inner euro space borders. Determine 5 shows the evolution of euro space inventory market indices for 2 notably energy- or oil-dependent company sectors – transport (gray line) and chemical compounds (violet line) – in comparison with a common market index (dashed black line). As one would count on, the transport index underperforms relative to the general market in the course of the preliminary fragmentation interval (23 February to 1 March 2022; gentle orange shaded space) and overperforms relative to the market in the course of the short-term re-integration interval (7 March to 1 April 2022; gentle inexperienced shaded space). However the chemical compounds sector index behaves hardly completely different from the general market index, besides maybe for the final week of the re-integration interval. Even for the transport index, deviations from the final market index don’t appear to be persistently massive.

Extra typically, with the info out there to us we couldn’t discover systematic outcomes for the connection between fairness market returns and vitality dependence, neither in cross-country correlations, nor in cross-sector correlations. Three concerns might clarify this considerably stunning consequence. First, inventory market indices for company sectors might not be sufficiently granular, typically mixing firms with excessive and low vitality or oil consumption. Second, some energy-intensive firms or sectors might profit from market buildings by which they’ve pricing energy. This market energy would permit firms to go the upper enter prices on to their clients with out decreased income materialising of their fairness market valuations. Third, the final macroeconomic implications of the Ukraine disaster for the euro space (decrease progress and better inflation) might dominate sector-specific implications, in order that fairness buyers don’t discriminate as a lot between sectors as one may need anticipated. According to these concerns, if one decomposes the price-based composite indicator of economic integration in Determine 2 into its market parts (not proven within the figures of this column), then its modifications in the course of the Ukraine disaster are notably pushed by bond markets and solely to a restricted extent by fairness markets.

Determine 5 Euro space inventory market indices in the course of the starting of the Ukraine warfare

(vertical axis: all indices normalised to 100 on 23 February 2022 and sector indices re-normalised to the extent of the general market index on 7 March 2022; horizontal axis: each day information from 22 February to 1 April 2022)

Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations
Notes: General market index is the Morgan Stanley Capital Worldwide (MSCI) Europe Index. Transport sector index is the MSCI Europe Transportation Index. Chemical compounds sector index is the STOXX Europe Chemical compounds Index.

Allow us to now flip from vitality to monetary exposures. Determine 6, which is constructed in the same manner as Determine 4, illustrates whether or not euro space banks’ exposures to Russia and Ukraine have been mirrored of their bond yields. Right here we don’t have a look at the fragmentation interval in the course of the first days of the warfare however on the short-term re-integration interval (7 March to 1 April 2022). Due to this fact, the speculation reverses: as some indicators of a leisure of the battle emerge and as European international locations reply in a unified manner, do the banks with the most important exposures to Russia and Ukraine expertise a larger discount of their bond yields in comparison with much less uncovered banks, as danger premiums decline?

The primary commentary from Determine 6 is that euro space banks’ direct exposures are total fairly low (see additionally ECB 2022d). Whereas with restricted country-level information the connection is unavoidably weak and the correlations need to be interpreted with warning, the purple dotted line is broadly in step with the speculation. Word that a number of international locations (dots) needed to be faraway from the determine for confidentiality causes, however their information are included within the regression-fitted strains. Furthermore, the corresponding determine for the fragmentation interval exhibits comparable outcomes (not displayed in Determine 6), simply with constructive slopes of the fitted strains (as one would count on and likewise in keeping with Determine 4).

Determine 6 Euro space international locations’ financial institution exposures to Russia and Ukraine and their bond yields in the course of the short-term re-integration interval in the course of the Ukraine warfare

(vertical axis: change between 7 March and 1 April 2022 in foundation factors; horizontal axis: This fall 2021)

Sources: Bloomberg, ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: Financial institution exposures are to households, non-financial companies and authorities establishments, protecting money deposits, debt, loans, securities and derivatives holdings. International locations with financial institution exposures under 0.25% are marked in blue and international locations above this worth in purple. Dotted strains are fitted with easy bivariate regressions together with an intercept. The black dotted regression-line incorporates all 11 euro space international locations for which dependable information have been out there (blue and purple dots). The purple dotted line solely incorporates the international locations with the most important financial institution exposures to Russia and Ukraine. The dots of three international locations needed to be suppressed for information confidentiality causes however their information are included within the regression-fitted strains. Irish information have been a big outlier and subsequently excluded from this determine. Nation abbreviations: DE=Germany; LU=Luxemburg; relaxation see notes to Determine 4.

In sum, the proof to this point means that the course of fragmentation and re-integration developments in the course of the early months of the battle appear to be broadly in keeping with the instructions one would count on from some elementary elements. However we can not infer from this straightforward evaluation that non-fundamental market dynamics or procyclical danger premiums haven’t performed any position.

Allow us to conclude with a have a look at elements that will disturb the accuracy of pricing property throughout euro space international locations. Within the the rest of this column, we deal with financial uncertainty (see additionally Anayi et al. 2022 on the uncertainty results of the Ukraine disaster). If uncertainty concerning the financial outlook of a rustic will increase (declines), danger premiums will be anticipated to rise (decline) and monetary market expectations might turn into extra (much less) liable to herding or extra (much less) susceptible to self-fulfilling equilibriums.

Determine 7 Uncertainty about euro space international locations’ outlook and their sovereign yields in the course of the starting of the Ukraine warfare

(vertical axis: change from February to March 2022 in foundation factors; horizontal axis: change from March to April 2022 in share factors)

Sources: Refinitiv, European Fee and ECB calculations
Notes: Adjustments in financial uncertainty are measured with month-to-month variations of the Financial Uncertainty Indicator of the European Fee (2022a, part 3.6.8). This indicator is derived from surveys of shoppers and firm managers (within the business, companies, development and retail commerce sectors). Respondents are requested in the course of the first three weeks of a month how troublesome they discover it to foretell their future monetary scenario (for households/shoppers) or their future enterprise scenario (for firms/managers). They will select certainly one of 5 doable solutions: straightforward to foretell, reasonably straightforward to foretell, reasonably troublesome to foretell, troublesome to foretell or don’t know. A month-to-month worth of the indicator is the mixture share of respondents that reply troublesome to foretell or reasonably troublesome to foretell. Sovereign yields are for 10-year authorities bonds. To match them with the timing of the Fee survey discipline work, modifications are calculated because the distinction between the common each day yield degree in the course of the first three weeks of a month. Dotted strains are fitted with easy bivariate regressions together with an intercept. The inexperienced dotted line, protecting modifications from February (earlier than the warfare) to March, incorporates all 16 euro space international locations for which dependable information have been out there (inexperienced dots). The sunshine blue dotted line, protecting modifications from March to April, incorporates 15 euro space international locations, as Greece needed to be excluded as an excessive outlier. Nation abbreviations are the identical as in Figures 4 and 5. The indicators of the correlations mirrored within the dotted strains don’t change when Malta is faraway from the February-March interval or Slovakia from the March-April interval.

Determine 7 exhibits how euro space international locations’ sovereign yields have been correlated with modifications in uncertainty, as measured with the European Fee’s broad survey-based Financial Uncertainty Indicator (EUI; see European Fee 2022a), in the course of the first months of the warfare. This indicator combines survey solutions of shoppers and firm managers in several EU international locations about how troublesome they discover it to foretell their future monetary or enterprise scenario.

Rising uncertainty concerning the financial and monetary outlook appears to be related to larger sovereign yields (inexperienced dots and inexperienced dotted regression-fitted line for modifications from February – earlier than the warfare – to March) and declining uncertainty with decrease sovereign yields (gentle blue dots and lightweight blue fitted line for modifications from March to April). The identical relationship is discovered for uncertainty and sovereign spreads relative to Germany (not reported in Determine 7).

In different phrases, whereas additional analysis is required on the relative steadiness between elementary and non-fundamental elements in driving the monetary integration developments in the course of the Ukraine disaster, it appears seemingly that in an surroundings of fixing financial uncertainty each parts can have performed a job.

Authors’ notice: All views expressed are these of the authors and shouldn’t be considered the views of the ECB or the Eurosystem.

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